Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Now Saudi-Iranian tensions

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-court-iran-idUSKBN1A415Z?il=0

Poland - EU clash continues

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-politics-judiciary-idUSKBN1A41C9?il=0

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Republican disaster

The GOP talks loudly and carries a small stick.

This failure to act decisively against the Left via Obamacare is a disaster because they have spent so much time attacking it.

It's ok to be hated for doing something hard. But you have to actually do the hard thing. The GOP's action is the equivalent of putting an enemy on the firing line to be executed, missing the shot and then letting them go free. When they come back, they will be stronger than ever and the GOP will be weaker than ever.

Same goes for immigration. It's ok to talk a tough game on illegal immigration -- if you follow through. (Because then those foreigners aren't around to vote against you.) If you don't then all you do is alienate those people AND face them voting against you.

This GOP is beyond disastrous. Everything Limbaugh has said for the last 30 years is so right. This is so sad.

Friday, July 14, 2017

Bad and weird tensions developing with China

Some HK people seem wary of Beijing's control, and are punished
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-politics-idUSKBN19Z0NY?il=0

Tensions with Taiwan and Liu Xiaobo
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-taiwan-idUSKBN19Z0X6?il=0

China freaking out again over Dalai Lama
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-botswana-dalailama-idUSKBN19Z0XE?il=0

Then there are the obvious issues surrounding N Korea and Trump.

A lot of smoke here.. a fire coming?

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Student loans and social security

This article

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/11/if-your-social-security-benefit-is-smaller-than-expected-heres-why.html

says that unpaid student loans can be taken out of social security. This is a threat to the system because it will essentially create a large number of people who simply forget it even exists and write it off as something to protect. It will take several decades to matter but this could majorly reshuffle politics

Sunday, July 2, 2017

How Trump will Triumph over the next year

The left's defeat in the Russian narrative is Trump's biggest victory yet. I think we will see him hold ground and grow slightly in the near term. But I see all the other established players losing ground politically.

Congress: both parties in Congress are in trouble. Voters are keenly aware of their inability to get anything done. Both of them have unpopular leaderships and strong oppositions (Rand Paul/Bernie Sanders). They also face mid-terms before Trump faces reelection.

The media: Simply imploding before our eyes.

I think we will see the fight worsening in the next 2-3 months. It might hurt the stock market this time and cause some consternation about the economy. I think G20 next week will be especially negative.

But this will actually be good because it will cause the Republicans will unite around tax cuts (including the possibility of corporate capital repatriation) in September-October.

I think this will happen and the economy will take off. The Republicans will get some credit for this but the real losers will be the dems... they will get destroyed in 2018.

So the timeline is:

  • Strife and bitterness in the near-term. Trump and Merkel to fight more viciously in Hamburg. (The Europeans seem oblivious to the fact that we have the upper hand on them.. we pay for NATO and buy more from them than vice versa. They have far more to lose.
  • The media and lunatic dem left will continue to push insane attacks on Trump. These will be less and less effective, but they will keep trying. A constant drumbeat of crazy.
  • I see some risk to the economy apart from this.. especially as the selloff in oil squeezes industrial activity. Housing construction hasn't rebounded yet either and thousands of retail stores are closing.
  • I think we'll have worries about stuff by August/September and the S&P 500 will tumble.. maybe as low as 2300.
  • This will allow Congress to form a working consensus to ram through tax cuts. Some dems like Manchin will join.
  • The economy will then surge and 2018 will be a monster year for growth. Trump will rise in popularity and sympathetic anti-establishment lawmakers will make headway in the mid-terms.
  • For now, the swamp will get beaten back.

How the lunatic left will launch and lose a civil war

One effect of the last few weeks is that, while Trump may not have gotten stronger per se (he might have), his opposition has clearly gotten weaker.

The CNN fake news fiasco, Congressional incompetence and inability of the Russia narrative to advance all show the anti-Trump forces weakening.. like armies futilely beating against the walls of an impregnable city.. or like the Germans at Stalingrad.. incapable of advancing further and slowly getting surrounded.

In some ways, a weaker opposition makes Trump stronger. But in other ways it doesn't. The experience of other countries shows that divided, hateful division can be a status quo. This might become the new normal, and result in a new kind of crisis down the road.

But for the time being I see the Left pushing harder and losing. I think they will continue rushing into battle with broomsticks of bromides and get mowed down the by the right's real weapons of truth. The left thinks they are right, but don't realize they are firing blanks. Their established weapons, after all, were never real. Their only effect was that the right feared their tactics of shame baseless assertion. Trump is showing the right they don't need to fear and can stand up to the left.

I see the possibility of this producing conflict (as companies like Target learned)... millions of mainstream right-center people will stand up to the leftists running companies, schools and governments. There will be fights.

I tend to think the right will win a lot of early victories because

  1. They are right on many fronts -- especially because things like education have gotten so bad and expensive
  2. They haven't fought before. 
  3. Trump has set the example and shown they can win
  4. The left is already starting to lose (CNN fall and rise of Alex Jones)
As this unfolds, I expect the left to keep mobilizing in futile, doomed attacks on Alex Jones and James O'Keefe. But in the end, the left will fall. It will be like the Duke of Alva continuing to hurl his forces against the Dutch rebels or the Americans fighting in Vietnam. The left has all the initial strength. But they're not fighting for anything clear.. and the enemy is fighting for his home. There are also new weapons of guerrilla warfare like Project Veritas.

Ultimately, it will come down to vision and purpose. The right's biggest asset is that the left literally stands for nothing. They are philosophically bankrupt. (Obama was elected twice in opposition to gay marriage but then took credit for implementing it. No movement can grow with that kind of contradiction.) Their leadership of states like IL shows the failure of their model as well.

The question now is really what the right stands for. After all, it was intellectual emptiness on the right that allowed the left to grow in the first place. For now, I think the right can rally around economic growth, freedom and traditional Americana. There is still enough meat on the bone I think of old America.

But this fight is going to get worse before it gets better. The left keeps losing and keeps fighting. They will only double and triple down ... 

It's not a surprise because they've lived in an insane echo chamber of lies for years.. they have no ability of judging -- much less acting on -- truth. They've been the devil's plaything, dancing on strings of lies. For now, the right is on the side of God and truth.